ABARE: predictions metals to the world market in 2013

The Bureau of Economic Research in the areas of agriculture, mineral resources and energy under the Government of Australia (ABARE) has published an analysis of the situation and forecast for the metals market before 2013.
Aluminium

According to ABARE, in 2007, the world aluminum prices averaged $ 2640 per ton, which is 3% higher than in 2006. Price increases were due to growth in demand for aluminum, especially in China.

However, in 2008, the projected price falls by 11%, to an average price $ 2350 per ton. Perhaps that prices will continue to decline until 2011, that is, to about $ 1820, as stocks of aluminium in the world will continue to grow.

World aluminum consumption is reported to have increased by 10% in 2007 and amounted to 37.2 million tons The consumption of aluminium in China increased by 40% in 2007, China provides approximately one third of the world's aluminum consumption in 2007, followed by Western Europe (18%), United States (15%) and Japan (6%).

Unlike China, aluminum consumption in the United States dropped by 7%. Japanese consumption of aluminium has also declined - by 5% in 2007

Projected that in 2008 world consumption of aluminium would reach 39.5 million tonnes, an increase of 6%, and China will continue to be the main consumer.

It is projected that consumption of aluminium in 2008-2013. will grow by an average of 6% a year and will reach 52.4 million by the end of the period. It is expected that, continuing the trend of recent years, will remain the main consumers of the developing countries. Consumption in developed countries will be less than 1 / 6 of growth in world consumption.

Alumina

In 2007, alumina prices averaged $ 341 per ton, it is 21% lower than last year. Despite the fall in aluminium prices and a substantial increase in alumina production is projected in 2008, it is expected that the cost of alumina would equal approximately $ 365 per ton, that is expected to increase by 7%. This reflects the strong demand for alumina on the spot market, especially in China, where production of aluminium is growing steadily. Production of alumina increased by approximately 50% in China in 2007, the main countries ekporterami alumina in China, Indonesia and India have become, by nearly 4.8 million tons PRC alumina in 2007

According to the forecasts, spot prices for alumina to decline in 2011 to $ 237 per ton, and by 2013, will rise to $ 273 per ton. Significant amounts of alumina production capacity will be put into operation in Brazil - 7.9 million tons, Australia - 7.1 million tons, China - 5.4 million, Guinea and India - approximately 3.2 million each.

Nickel

Prices for nickel in 2007 amounted to an average of $ 37.2 thousand, it is by 53% more than in 2006. After reaching $ 54.2 thousand in May 2007, in the second half of the year, prices have dropped significantly.

The price of nickel derzhalas at the level of $ 25 thousand from the middle of 2006 because of growing demand, especially in China. It is expected that the further economic development of China will support the growth in demand for the metal in the medium term.

Predicted that by 2013, stocks of nickel increase, as the launch of new and expansion of existing production capacity will outstrip growth in demand. As a result, prices will decline, and by 2013, is projected to be approximately $ 15 thousand per ton.

According to ABARE forecast for 2008, the price of nickel on average, amount to $ 24.5 thousand
World nickel consumption is projected to grow by an average of 6.5% a year and will reach almost 2 million by 2013

Because nickel prices increased, the price of stainless steel nikelsoderzhaschie varieties grown in proportion to that effect on the demand for them.

According to forecasts for 2008, the world's nickel industry will grow by 4% to 1.63 million tons New projects are usually sold in the countries where already produces large quantities of nickel, such as Brazil, Canada and Australia. But there is also actively develop similar projects in regions where the first of the nickel industry was extremely limited: Turkey, Vietnam and Kazakhstan. As predicted, the nickel industry with the launch of new projects will grow at an average rate of 6% a year and will reach 2.16 million tons by 2013

Copper

In 2007, world prices for copper averaged $ 7130 per ton, it is 6% higher than last year. According to the forecast, the price of copper in 2008 will drop by 4% and amount to an average of $ 6824 per ton. Production in 2008 increased by 7%, despite the disruptions in the supply of copper concentrates.

World consumption of copper, projected to increase by 5% because of the high demand, especially - in China.
Electricity represents about half of China's copper consumption. It is expected that the industry will continue to keep demand for copper in China at the highest level, and in 2008 the consumption of copper in the electricity will increase by 5% to 2 million tons

Consumption of copper in the United States is expected to decrease in 2008 due to the continued weakening of the real estate market - for the construction of a home requires an average of 180 kilograms of copper.

World production of copper ore in 2008 should rise by 7% and to set up 16.4 million tons in 2008 through the introduction of new projects in Chile, the United States, Zambia and the Congo. It is projected that copper ore production will grow by an average of 5% a year and will reach 21 million tons in 2013

Zinc

In 2007, world zinc prices averaged $ 3240 per ton. For the year prices fell by 48% - from $ 4259 per ton in January to $ 2214 in November. According to the forecast, in 2008 prices remain low, in response to the growth in production and rising stocks. It is expected that the world prices of zinc in 2008 will be an average of $ 2200 per ton, 32% lower than in 2007 zinc production volume in 2008 is expected, for the first time since 2003 exceed consumption, in 2008, the gap will grow over the year, ABARE and experts do not expect a return to the level of prices in 2007.

However, due to the extreme weather conditions in January 2008, the loss in production amounted to about 100 tonnes, and if the voltage problem will continue, it is likely that zinc prices will be higher than forecast.

World consumption of zinc increased by about 4% in 2007 and amounted to 11.4 million tons According to the forecast, in 2008 zinc consumption will rise another 4%, to 11.9 million tons

Zinc consumption in China is estimated at 3.6 million tons in 2007, approximately one-third of global consumption. The growing construction and automobile production in India may also affect the increase in the consumption of zinc in the country. It is expected that consumption growth will continue, as China and India continue to grow.

The world zinc production rose more than 9% and amounted to 11.4 million tons in 2007, in line with forecast, it is expected that production will grow even further to 4% by 2008 and reach 11.8 million tons

The increase in world production in 2008 is expected to occur as a result of development of new mines and expand production in Canada, Australia, in South America and Africa.

Production of refined zinc increased by 6% and amounted to 11.4 million tons in 2007 5 - 2008 g. Refine existing factories and mines are expected to be working at full capacity, and it is expected that work will start a large number of new projects. As a result, production of refined zinc, projected could amount to 11.9 million tonnes in 2008 and 12.7 million tons in 2009

Because of problems with electricity in China at the end of January this year, with estimated losses of up to 100 tonnes of production, it is anticipated that the Chinese zinc production in 2008 will be lower than planned.

On average, world zinc production, projected to grow by 5% a year and by 2013 to reach 153 million tons